By Ron Taber
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Extra info for A Look at Leninism
Thus, the condition ( # # # # 1 # # # # # # # # ) "recognizes" market states in which the price has risen in the last 3 periods. The condition ( # # # # # # # # # 0 # # # ) recognizes states where the current price is not larger than 16 times dividend divided by r. The forecasting part of each predictor is an array of parameters that triggers a corresponding forecasting expression. In our experiments, all forecasts use a linear combination of price and dividend, E(pt+i + dt+i) — a(pt + dt) + b.
E. Regime Complex Regime Mean Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis1 Vol. , kurtosis -3). How does technical trading emerge in psychologically rich or complex regime? e. e. beliefs need not disappear rapidly. Instead they can become mutually reinforcing. Suppose, for example, predictors appear early on that, by chance, condition an upward price forecast upon the markets showing a current rising trend. Then, agents who hold such predictors are more likely to buy into the market on an uptrend, raising the price over what it might otherwise be, causing a slight upward bias that might be sufficient to lend validation to such rules and retain them in the market.
In both sets of experiments, technical-trading bits are initially seeded randomly in the predictor population. In the rational-expectations regime, however, technical-trading bits provide no useful information and fall off as useless predictors are discarded. But in the complex regime, they bootstrap in the population, reaching a steady-state value by 150,000 periods. 12! Price statistics in the complex regime differ from those in the rationalexpectations regime, mainly in that kuitosis is evident in the complex case (Table 1) and that volume of shares traded (per 10,000 periods) is about 300% larger in the complex case, reflecting the degree to which the agents remain heterogeneous in their expectations as the market evolves.
A Look at Leninism by Ron Taber